Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
