It was eight weeks in the past when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the reason of Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side which has put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa seem curiously susceptible – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike originated from an exquisite effort, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.
